If you've turned on the television, opened social media, or checked the news lately, you've probably noticed it's becoming nearly impossible to avoid discussion about the upcoming midterm elections.
Over the next several weeks, we’ll be inundated with headlines, predictions, polls, and opinions. Every story will seem urgent. Every commentator will have a view on what investors should do next.
Sometimes I wish successful investing were as simple as following politics. It would certainly make our jobs easier if we could point to a single election result and confidently predict what markets will do next.
Unfortunately, it has never been that simple.
History shows that while midterm election years often bring increased uncertainty and volatility, markets have generally been resilient over the long term. In fact, the year following midterm elections has historically produced positive returns more often than not.[1]
The lesson isn’t that elections don’t matter.
The lesson is that successful investing has never depended on accurately predicting them.
While politicians understandably want the conversation to be about them, we believe the conversation should remain focused on something far more important: you.
Your retirement.
Your family.
Your career.
Your health.
Your future.
These are the factors that truly drive a financial plan and shape an investment strategy. A headline may dominate the news for a day. An election may dominate the conversation for a season. But your goals often remain consistent for years or even decades.
That’s the power of financial planning.
One of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes is:
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
It’s a reminder that emotions can often be an investor’s biggest challenge. When uncertainty rises, many people feel pressure to react. That’s why we rely on a disciplined investment process rather than emotion.
Through diversification and periodic rebalancing, we work to keep portfolios aligned with our clients’ long-term objectives. In many ways, rebalancing is Buffett’s quote put into action. It encourages us to remain disciplined when others may be reacting emotionally.
As election season continues, remember that your portfolio should be built around your plan, not around something a politician says or does.
And if the headlines are creating concern, please reach out to your advisor.
One of the most valuable things we provide isn’t predicting markets. It’s listening, providing perspective, and helping clients stay focused on what matters most when the world seems determined to focus on everything else.
The headlines will change. The politicians will change. The news cycle will move on.
But a thoughtful financial plan, a disciplined investment process, and a trusted advisor remain some of the most powerful tools for achieving long-term financial success.
Our advice remains simple: stay focused on your goals, trust the process, and don’t hesitate to call us if you’d like to talk. We’re always here to listen.
Sources
[1]
Bales, William. “Midterm Years Have Produced the Same Stock-Market Pattern Since 1946.” The WealthAdvisor, October 5, 2026. https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/midterm-years-have-produced-same-stock-market-pattern-1946
Caporal, Jack. “The Midterms Are Coming. Here’s What the Stock Market Has Actually Done Before and After Since 1874.” The Motley Food, October 8, 2026. Published via KIRO 7 News Seattle. https://www.kiro7.com/news/midterms-are-coming/YIJA3N4RBM42DHBC5HCXE7326Y/
Speights, Keith. “The S&P 500 Has Never Been Lower 12 Months After a Midterm Election. Not One in 19 Tries. Here’s Whether 2026 Could Finally Break That Streak.” The Motley Fool, October 5, 2026. Published via Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-never-lower-12-084601981.html?guccounter=1