What We’re Seeing
I cannot invest the way I want the world to be; I have to invest the way the world is – Jim Rogers
Buddhism reminds us: all attachment leads to suffering. Yet not all attachments are the same, nor is all suffering. We cling to small hopes – the Mariners reaching the World Series – or to grand narratives about economies and politics. In the clinging, attachment takes root. But clinging makes a fist around smoke. The tighter we hold, the less remains.
We know the map is not the territory, no matter how insistently we read it as if it were. Portfolio projections, career timelines, carefully stress-tested scenarios – these are maps. A financial plan is a map. Useful, necessary, but not the ground beneath our feet. The terrain shifts – careers change, markets surprise, black swans appear. Nothing is permanent, however much we depend on it. Our task is not to force the world to match the drawing, but to keep walking with open eyes. Perfect clarity is never available and we’re always navigating some haze. Planning is about adjusting as facts change, as you change, as life changes. Sometimes you need to make some chicken scratches on the map when new information is available.
We carry other maps too in the stories we tell ourselves. “I’ll retire once we’re more secure.” “The economy is heading in the wrong direction.” Personal hopes or fears and grand narratives alike, these stories bind us. Repeated often enough, they fill the air with smoke. When attachment begins its familiar cycle, we can step back, soften the gaze, and let distance open. In that distance a modicum of clarity might be found. The map is still there, but neither have we disappeared into it. From there, we’re in a better position to see which direction we’re going.
At Mainspring, we hold to this truth: the world is always shifting. Our work is not to resist change, but to help you meet it with humility and resilience. A plan is a map, not a prophecy – it is a posture, a way to keep walking, eyes open.
5 Major Takeaways
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Corporate Earnings:
With the federal government shutdown delaying key economic data releases and investors still weighing the longer-term impact of shifting policies like tariffs, attention has shifted to third-quarter corporate earnings. So far, results have largely exceeded expectations: roughly 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates, with growth tracking near 8.5%. Stronger-than-expected earnings provide a clearer “dot on the map” of where we are in today’s economic environment—helping cut through speculation and noise, even if they don’t define the final destination. -
The Dual Mandate:
After a nine-month pause, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, signaling growing tension between its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Inflation has stalled slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, while labor market indicators point to stagnation, underscoring the delicate balance policymakers face while having to make decisions with imperfect information. -
AI Infrastructure:
Capital spending on AI infrastructure has surged to unprecedented levels with some creative financing strategies starting to appear. Combined fiscal-year revenue for major hyperscalers is estimated at roughly $1.4 trillion, with about $320 billion earmarked for AI data centers—nearly 23% of revenue. By contrast, software-heavy firms have historically allocated closer to 2% of revenue to capital expenditures. Industries that compare on a relative basis are capital-intensive sectors such as telecom and utilities. [Link] -
Rare Earths:
China continues to dominate global refining capacity and supplies roughly 70–80% of U.S. rare earth demand, using export controls as a strategic lever in trade negotiations. While U.S. partnerships with countries like Australia and Ukraine aim to reduce dependency, the challenge is less about scarcity and more about the environmental and technical complexity of mining and refining. Even under optimistic scenarios, domestic facilities nearing completion would meet only about 10–17% of demand by 2026, meaning reliance on Chinese supply will persist for some time. Independence is possible, but likely on a longer timeline. [Link]. -
Oil Supply:
Global oil markets remain well-supplied as production growth outpaces demand, pushing inventories to multi-year highs and easing pressure on prices. Forecasts from major agencies point to a gradual drift lower over the next couple of years, even as U.S. consumption holds firm on economic resilience and rising energy needs from data centers. While sanctions on Russian crude may create short-term volatility, the broader surplus suggests prices will stay contained. For perspective, oil remains one of the most efficiently produced commodities—requiring billions in infrastructure to deliver a gallon of premium gasoline for less than a gallon of organic milk. With fracking and existing capacity meeting demand, the conversation is increasingly shifting toward peak demand rather than scarcity.
One Big Number
18%1
Marketplace health plan premiums are projected to rise sharply in 2026, with a median proposed increase of about 18%, the largest jump since 2018. This follows a turbulent 2025 for insurers, as Aetna, Elevance, Humana, and UnitedHealthcare disclosed DOJ investigations into alleged fraudulent Medicare claims, discrimination, and kickbacks. Kaiser Permanente, meanwhile, settled a similar probe dating back to 2021.
With One Big Chart
Distribution of proposed 2026 rate changes among 312 ACA marketplace insurers 1
Sources:
1 Source: “Distribution of proposed 2026 rate changes among 312 ACA Marketplace insurers,” Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, accessed 08/06/2025, https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2026/
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. It is not possible to directly invest in an index.
Investing in commodities is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors.
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The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James.
